ANALYSIS OF THE HISTORICAL DATA

The data was analysed using programs written within the Clipper Computer MIS System. For most categories of data, the output was sent to file and imported to Harvard Graphics version 2.3 (DOS) using the ASCII Delimited File Import Facility. All graphs cover the 3 major markets for the period 1989 through 1994 unless otherwise stated. Data was normally smoothed on a 42 day period around the date.

This graph is really a combination of animal liveweight and animal grade or quality, and is a good indication of animal quality variation.

All 3 locations show a strong annual cycle, with a peak of condition in June/July and a low in December/January. This variation is strongest for Arusha and Moshi, being approx 27%; it is only about 15% for Dar. The Dar peak and trough appear to be June and December, with Arusha and Moshi slightly later with July and January.

The pattern for Dar is a slight decline (3%) in both maximum and minimum over the period 1989 through 1994; Moshi has a slight increase per annum in the minimum values (2.5% p.a.) and a pronounced and accelerating increase per annum in the maximum values (5-11% p.a.); Arusha is making the most dramatic average quality increases with a jump of 12% p.a. from 1993 to 1994.

Current values for max and min are: Dar 100 and 85; Moshi 117 and 82; Arusha 127 and 100: Arusha has the highest quality animals, with Moshi second and Dar last.