ORIGIN DATA ANALYSIS

There is origin data for all 3 major markets. This was analysed using a menu option in the MIS Computer System, which calculates average edible weight per animal, average grade per animal, and sex distribution. The data was then imported to Harvard and graphed as before:

These graphs shows that, pre-June 93, Meatu supplied 20% of the animals to Arusha, Mbulu 18%, Shinyanga 13% etc.; post-June 1993, Meatu jumped to 53% of the market, and all others fell back, except Kondoa, which registered a gain from 8% to 10% of the market. Of these falls in market share, Shinyanga, Iramba and Singida fared the worst, with the biggest drops.

GRAPH MIS9004.htm - ARUSHA - SUPPLY REGIONS - AVERAGE EDIBLE WEIGHT.

As we know, average edible weight is a good measure of animal quality, being a combination of liveweight and grade information (the only drawback is that a big shift in the percentage of cows in a population also affects the average edible weight, even without any real change in animal quality).

This graph shows that after June 1993, there were significant gains in animal quality for animals coming from Meatu, Iramba, Kondoa, Igunga, and Karatu; there was a static situation for animals from Shinyanga, Hanang, Singida and Maswa (but Hanang already had a very high animal quality).

Kondoa stands out as not only registering a very high percentage gain in animal quality, but also in getting to top value for animal quality. Combine this with the gain in market share in MIS9003.htm as above, and we have a very interesting situation in Kondoa. I very strongly recommend that the cattle production business in Kondoa is investigated as possibly being a model for other regions (as is of course Meatu).

GRAPH MIS9005.htm - ARUSHA - SUPPLY REGIONS - AVERAGE GRADE.

This is really effectively just another way of presenting the information which is present in MIS9004.htm as above. It says the same, but is a cruder measure in some ways.

Note that for these 3 graphs, the accuracy of the market share information may be suspect, since it is based on sampling accuracy (or luck), but that the average edible weight information should be treated as quite accurate.

GRAPH MIS9013.htm - MOSHI - SUPPLY REGIONS - MARKET SHARE.

The information for Moshi is not so exciting as for Arusha above, since (as we know) the animal quality gains for Moshi are not quite so outstanding. Also of course Moshi is very much a second market to Arusha, and mainly deals in the lower quality animals which were unsold at Arusha on the previous week.

This graph shows that Kiteto's market share fell from 26% to 18%, Mbulu from 24% to 18%, and Kondoa from 13% to 10%; Singida rose from 7% to 10%, Babati from 4% to 11%, and Hanang from 2% to 4%.

GRAPH MIS9014.htm - MOSHI - SUPPLY REGIONS - AVERAGE EDIBLE WEIGHT.

This graph shows data similar to that of MIS9004.htm: that after June 1993, there were significant gains in animal quality for animals coming from Kondoa and Iramba; there was a static situation for animals from Shinyanga, Hanang, and Singida (but Hanang already had a very high animal quality).

GRAPH MIS9015.htm - MOSHI - SUPPLY REGIONS - AVERAGE GRADE.

This is really effectively just another way of presenting the information which is present in MIS9014.htm as above. It says the same, but is a cruder measure in some ways.

GRAPH MIS9023.htm - DAR - SUPPLY REGIONS - MARKET SHARE.

The information for Dar is the least exciting, since (as we know) there were effectively zero animal quality gains for Dar.

This graph shows that Shinyanga gained from 27% to 34% of the market, and Dodoma gained from 17% to 21% of the market; Tabora fell from 20% to 13%, and Singida from 17% to 12%.

GRAPH MIS9024.htm - DAR - SUPPLY REGIONS - AVERAGE EDIBLE WEIGHT.

This graph shows that only Mbeya (a fairly minor player by market share) gained in animal quality terms (from 93 kg to 104 kg); the other supply regions were either static or falling in animal quality terms.

GRAPH MIS9025.htm - DAR - SUPPLY REGIONS - AVERAGE GRADE.

This is really effectively just another way of presenting the information which is present in MIS9024.htm as above. It says the same, but is a cruder measure in some ways.

GRAPH MIS9031.htm through MIS9033.htm - SUPPLY REGIONS - SEX DISTRIBUTION.

These graphs show the sex distributions coming from the various regions to the 3 major markets, both before and after June 1993. There is nothing very startling about the information, but like all other information, it may reveal something useful to the cattle specialists on the TLMP Team.