ANALYSIS OF THE HISTORICAL DATA - SUMMARY
The summary is best done by the following tables, which cover seasonal variations in markets and also cover inter-market comparisons:
|
June/July |
December/January |
|
|
Volume of Sales |
High |
Low |
|
Animal Condition |
High |
Low |
|
Unit Price/Animal |
High |
Low |
|
Unit Price/kg edible |
Low |
High |
Table: Seasonal Variations in Cattle Markets
|
Arusha |
Moshi |
Dar |
|
|
Edible Kg/animal |
120 kg |
117 kg |
98 kg |
|
Seasonal Var.EKA |
+/- 12% |
+/- 12% |
+/- 8% |
|
B Factor |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
|
Price/kg edible |
US$ 0.85 |
US$ 1.00 |
US$ 1.25 |
|
Seas.Var.PKE |
+/- 7% |
+/- 7% |
+/- 20% |
|
Price/Animal |
US$ 100 |
US$ 100 |
US$ 120 |
|
Avg.Grade |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
|
Var.Grade |
+/- 8% |
+/- 8% |
+/- 5% |
|
Age |
9.5 years |
9.5 years |
8 years |
|
Steers %age |
65% |
65% |
60% |
|
Cows %age |
28% |
25% |
20% |
|
Bulls %age |
7% |
10% |
20% |
|
Yardage/year |
50,000 animals |
28,000 animals |
140,000 animals |
|
Sold/year |
30,000 animals |
28,000 animals |
140,000 animals |
Table - Macro Characteristics of Major Markets, 1994 readings.
In addition to the above simplified tables, the following trends are active:
Condition - Arusha and Moshi have been improving animal quality/ animal condition rapidly over the last 2 years; Dar animal conditions appear static. The 2 indicators Average Edible Weight/Animal and Average Grade/Animal both illustrate animal condition - a higher edible weight /animal and a lower grade per animal both indicate better condition.
B Factor - the Condition improvements as above seem to be mirrored by a change in the way that Arusha and Moshi now apply healthy price incentives to their markets - B factors are now significantly above 1.0.
Unit Prices - prices per edible kg - the average prices per edible kilo have been declining slowly over the years for all 3 markets.
Age - Arusha and Dar ages have remained quite constant; Moshi ages have been increasing over the last 2 years (but judging of age is difficult and subjective).
Yardage and Sold - Arusha and Moshi yardages have been relatively constant over the years, but Arusha sales have been rising strongly. Since we must accept that most of the Moshi yardage is in fact sold, then total sales in these 2 Northern markets have been increasing modestly in number terms. Data on Dar yardages has not been analysed for this report, since the information is not at present to hand.
Overall Turnover or Revenue - for the 2 northern markets, it appears that the following present trends are producing an increase in turnover after some years of slow decline; these trends are: an apparent flattening off in the falling unit price per edible kg in US$ terms, appreciable and impressive gains in the average animal quality, an appreciable price incentive for better quality animals, and a rise in sales volumes.
I recommend that these definite and impressive improvements in the average quality of cattle in the 2 northern markets should and must be investigated in order to determine:
- how the producer and/or trekker animal quality increases were effected
- whether the experience in this respect of the 'successful' regions can be transferred to other less successful regions feeding these northern markets
- whether these experiences can also be transferred to producers feeding the Dar market
- whether the price structure and price incentives prevalent in the 2 northern markets may somehow also institute themselves at the Dar es Salaam market, without which any improvements in the quality of animals destined for the Dar market may prove to be uneconomic
In connection with the above, by analysis of the Origin information, the successful cattle producing regions were identified (i.e. Meatu, Kondoa and others). Furthermore, by analysis of the Buyer information for Dar, buyers of high quality animals were identified (i.e. David, Daudi and others); interviews with these high quality buyers (and conversely with the 2 identified low-quality buyers) may shed light on the possibility of developing quality premiums for the Dar market.